Mixed Business: The market has been back and forth, but mostly back on the long end and forth on the short, holding the yield curve near the steepest levels on record. The swings in the longer maturities have been wide, tapering off down the curve. The market is fully invested in the Fed being on hold well into 2010 as the miserable jobs data continue to show deterioration, albeit, less deteriorating (BMO's Andy Busch put it well "These weak job numbers won't preclude central bank and finance ministers discussions about how an exit strategy will be enacted nor when it will begin. This weekend's G20 meetings will follow up on the previous meetings verbal jousting on how this will be accomplished...Wrapping this up, things are slowly getting less worse and not much else has changed.") The market saw some of the best size in a long time on this report, sadly it took a 10.2% unemployment rate to drag players back into the game (or force them out, as the case may be). The mixed nature of the trade will continue to dominate while the steepened curve will remain on track for record levels. The 2-10-yr yield spread saw a push to just shy of 270, aiming for the 270.5 point once the week-ends unwinds wash through. The dollar was given an initial bump to better levels on the brief safety plays and short coverage, but slipped back to little changed as rate reality set in and trade falls into the range rut. The euro was dunked from near 1.4915 following the wholesale inventories report while falling further on the yen as risk was unwound. The yen has picked up but has stalled near 89.80.
