Pick a Side: Via WSJ-The bad news is that the jobs situation seems to have stalled out after improving dramatically through the summer. Private payroll declines actually widened slightly in September and in October. Thus, while we still strongly believe based on anecdotes, surveys, and other statistics that the labor situation is improving and that job losses will come to an end within a few months, the payroll numbers themselves do not indicate much positive momentum. In contrast to the payroll survey results, the household survey data were unambiguously negative. The unemployment rate surged to 10.2%, as the household gauge of employment plunged by almost 600,000 on top of September's 785,000 drop. --Stephen Stanley, RBS ...Cyclical recovery is evident as job gains rise in temporary help and education/health and smaller job losses in retail and financial services. Turn in the labor market is very evident. Do expect job gains in 2010. --John Silvia, Wells Fargo...Productivity gains and the hoarding of skilled labor earlier are some of the reasons for the jobless recovery. For fear of losing jobs, the current employees are working harder. During the recession, employers kept its most skilled workforce for better economic times. As production increases in some parts of the economy, the hoarded labor is utilized without adding to payrolls... Two of the hardest hit sectors of the economy, manufacturing and construction, should show some signs of stabilization in the future. --Sung Won Sohn, Smith School of Business and Economics
